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Are Macintosh software sales rising or falling? An important question, and one that guest writer Matt Deatherage examines in detail. Also this week, both Claris and Qualcomm update their email clients, FreePPP 2.5v3 appears, Info-Mac continues working on its move, the Crack A Mac challenge ends, and Adam marks the seventh anniversary of TidBITS.
Copyright 1997 TidBITS Electronic Publishing. All rights reserved.
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This issue of TidBITS sponsored in part by:
Aladdin Systems -- 408/761-6200 -- <http://www.aladdinsys.com/>
Makers of StuffIt Deluxe 4.0, the Mac compression standard, and
InstallerMaker 3.1.1, the leading installer for Mac developers.
Small Dog Electronics -- Special deal for TidBITS Readers!
Performa 6200 8MB/1GB/CD 15" monitor, refurbished: $979
More Info: <http://www.smalldoggy.com/#tid> -- 802/496-7171
FreePPP 2.5v3 Patcher -- Steve Dagley and the FreePPP Group have released a 36K patcher program that updates the FreePPP 2.5v2 extension to 2.5v3. It fixes a nasty bug that has long been lurking in the original MacPPP code. In situations of heavy load, this bug could cause FreePPP to crash or hang. If you use FreePPP 2.5v2, you should update your copy. [ACE]
<ftp://ftp.tidbits.com/pub/tidbits/select/free-ppp-25v3-patch.hqx>Info-Mac Back Soon -- Worrying about the return of Info-Mac? Fear not, Info-Mac will return - the moderators continue to work hard at correctly setting up all the important scripts and Unix details. All the files have been moved over from sumex-aim, and the new machine (a gift from AOL a few years ago), is officially set up and working at MIT. The hope is that Info-Mac will come online in the next week or so. Please don't submit new files to the archive until that time; some resubmissions will be necessary for files that arrived during the move. [ACE]
Emailer 2.0 Available -- Last week, Claris released Emailer 2.0, sporting a revamped interface and a handful of new landmark features. The most important change is that Emailer now stores messages in database form (rather than as separate files) which greatly reduces disk space overhead in comparison to storing messages as individual files. Emailer's Mail Actions are more robust and offer extended filtering options, and Emailer now supports hierarchical File Cabinet folders. If you upgrade from an earlier version, ensure that your existing mail converts properly by reading the installation instructions carefully. Claris has posted a 4 MB trial version of Emailer 2.0. Claris -- 800/544-8554 [JLC]<http://www.claris.com/products/claris/emailer/site/>
Eudora 3.1 Available -- Hot on the heels of the release of Claris Emailer 2.0, Qualcomm released version 3.1 of Eudora Light and Eudora Pro. The main new feature in both versions is a hierarchical Mailboxes window that provides a target for drag & drop of messages, quick access to mailboxes, and easy manipulation of your mailbox hierarchy. Eudora Pro 3.1 also features a toolbar that simplifies adding styled text to messages, support for displaying attached graphics within a message window, and "personalities." Personalities enable a single copy of Eudora Pro to send and receive mail on multiple Internet email accounts, which is ideal for those of us with lots of accounts. People who share a copy of Eudora Pro will still want to keep separate Eudora Folders with separately configured Eudora Settings files. The update for Eudora Pro is free, and Eudora Light remains completely free. The Eudora Pro updater is 1.7 MB, and Eudora Light 3.1 is 2 MB. [ACE]<http://www.eudora.com/>
Crack Proof -- In TidBITS-365, we noted the two-month "Crack A Mac" challenge being held in Sweden, offering a cash prize to anyone able to change the contents of a Web page running on a standard Mac OS Web server. The prize money eventually rose to over U.S. $13,000, but no one claimed the prize by the contest deadline of 10-Apr-97 - though not for lack of trying! The challenge's coordinators have posted a summary of the contest results and various break-in attempts made on the contest server, including some clever (and amusing) social-engineering attempts to make the contest coordinators to change the Web page themselves. [GD]
by Adam C. Engst <firstname.lastname@example.org>
This week marks the seventh year of TidBITS, making us serious Internet geezers. If you're new to TidBITS (and many of you are!) I thought I'd take a moment to note where TidBITS is on this anniversary. Back in April of 1990, Tonya and I released the first issue of TidBITS to the Internet in HyperCard format (a format that survived for 99 issues before being replaced by setext). Since then we've published on a weekly basis through several Apple CEOs (Sculley to Spindler to Amelio), numerous business cycles for Apple Computer, the release of more Macs than we can count, the arrival of Macintosh clones, the continuing ascendancy of the Internet, the hyping of Java, and the change in fortunes of industry luminaries like WordPerfect, Aldus, Borland, Ashton-Tate, and Lotus.
You could argue that the world has changed completely since we began, and in many ways it has. Heck, even some of our April Fools jokes (such as in TidBITS-052) have come true. But, just as everything continues to change at an increasingly fast pace, there's also a case to be made for everything staying much the same. Microsoft still calls many of the shots in the computer industry. Apple still gets bad press even when it's undeserved. The Mac OS is still the easiest operating system to learn and use. Macworld Expos are so similar that it's almost impossible to remember what happened at any given show.
Some Numbers -- Even TidBITS embodies this dichotomy (and we've never been afraid to use the occasional word that might require a trip to the dictionary - think of it as expanding horizons). Our format has stayed extremely consistent since the switch from HyperCard, and we've stuck within our informal limit of 30K of text per issue without fail (other than a few special issues). And yet, the number of people reading TidBITS continues to skyrocket. Our English-language mailing list (originally run thanks to the generosity of Rice University, and now run on a Power Mac 7100 and StarNine's ListSTAR) served about 19,000 people in April of 1995, 37,000 in April of 1996, and 46,000 today. In April of 1995, TidBITS went to 65 countries; today that number has hit 106, including a number of countries that weren't on the Internet two years ago (or weren't even countries). Want to help those numbers? Tell your friends they can subscribe to TidBITS, for free of course, by sending an email message to <email@example.com>.
We've found it difficult to estimate the number of TidBITS readers, thanks to redistribution lists and popular areas like the comp.sys.mac.digest newsgroup, which can't be tracked well. Nonetheless, we've always committed to publishing in as many ways as made sense, so we'll continue to make issues available via email, FTP, Usenet news, and of course the Web. Check our Web site for the latest issue and links to every past issue of TidBITS.
The Top Seven -- Leading the pack in number of English-language subscribers in the country category are the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Sweden. The top seven Internet providers are AOL, EarthLink, CompuServe, Netcom, MindSpring, Northwest Nexus, and AT&T WorldNet. The top seven non-ISP companies (many others have internal distribution lists we can't track) are Apple, Motorola, Hughes Aircraft, Microsoft, DuPont, McDonnell Douglas, and Schlumberger. The top seven educational institutions are University of Minnesota, Stanford University, University of Michigan, Cornell University, University of Washington, University of Texas, and Harvard University.
In my mind, our most impressive achievement is that we've published on a regular weekly schedule the entire time. In the early days, a weekly schedule and a shorter lead time than any paper publication put us on the edge of speedy computer journalism. These days, it's hard to avoid being inundated with poorly-written, poorly-researched daily news (though there are notable exceptions, like Matt Deatherage's MDJ and Ric Ford's MacInTouch). We try to do more than merely report the news, and instead try to offer some context or analysis so you can get a better sense of what it all means. And, sometimes we ignore events because we don't want to clutter your brains with useless information. I believe that's what sets a publication apart from a stream of raw data.
Finances -- I'm pleased that we've kept TidBITS completely free all these years. I won't pretend that TidBITS has made us rich, but we've never lost money (in fact, we made about $900 million more than Apple last year, if you want to talk bottom line). Most of TidBITS's income comes from our sponsors, and it has enabled us to contract with Geoff Duncan and Jeff Carlson, our Technical and Managing Editors. Without their help, we'd never be able to keep up our schedule and quality, both of which are important to us. As much as TidBITS remains an idealistic venture, it must also remain a viable business.
Interestingly, we started the sponsorship program back in July of 1992, before the Web had appeared and years before advertising on the Internet was even acceptable, much less commonplace as it is today. Although a few of our early sponsors have been acquired or are no longer around, most current and past sponsors have proven to be the stalwarts of the Macintosh and Internet worlds. Among this group are (in order of appearance) Nisus Software, Dantz Development, APS Technologies, Northwest Nexus, PowerCity Online, Hayden Books, InfoSeek, Power Computing, America Online, EarthLink Network, Aladdin Systems, Small Dog Electronics, and our most recent sponsor, StarNine Technologies.
Any Macintosh or Internet company that's interested in supporting a high-quality, free resource like TidBITS and reaching a few hundred thousand readers each week should contact Tonya at <firstname.lastname@example.org> for more details. Who knows, one of these years Apple or Claris might even sponsor us.
Translations -- 1996 also marked the year in which TidBITS translations came into their own. The Japanese translation team has done a wonderful job since TidBITS-281 (and has amassed their own mailing list of over 8,600 people), and the other five language teams (Chinese, Dutch, French, German, and Spanish) basically all appeared in 1996. Thanks to our early status as one of the few sources of timely information for readers in other countries, and our efforts to not ignore international concerns, being able to publish in six different languages has been a real treat. As always, if you're interested in helping the volunteer translation teams by translating an article every so often, check our Web site for the address of the appropriate coordinator. We're always happy to have more help with translations.
Further Reading -- If you're interested in TidBITS history, you might want to browse our past anniversary issues. Check out TidBITS-001, TidBITS-120, TidBITS-173, TidBITS-222 (the most detailed history so far), TidBITS-273, and TidBITS-324. We're proud of the fact that every single one of our issues is available online. Two conversions were necessary for that to be true. In 1992, my sister Jennifer Engst converted the first 99 HyperCard issues into setext, and toward the end of 1996, our Contributing Editor Matt Neuburg converted the first 275 setext issues into HTML to flesh out our Web presence. Everything's available on our Web site, so feel free to browse.
<http://www.tidbits.com/tb-issues/>In the end, I feel that TidBITS is entering its prime (after a year of being divisible by two and three). There's no telling if we'll make it to the next prime number in four years, but we have no plans to stop.
by Matt Deatherage <email@example.com>
The press loves to quote numbers, especially when predicting the immediate demise of Apple Computer. However, the numbers the press uses are often less precise than they would have you believe. For instance, the Software Publishing Association (SPA) tracks software sales on a regular basis and reported last year that Macintosh software sales in 1995 were down roughly 14 percent. However, the SPA releases sales figures for a given year twice - a preliminary set about three months into the next year, and a final set a year later. That 14 percent drop came from preliminary figures for 1995; now that 1996 is over, the SPA has released the final numbers for 1995, which show that Macintosh software sales were in fact up 24 percent. Oops. Let's take a look at how the SPA gathers this information and what it all means.
What is the SPA? The recently released numbers come from the SPA's ongoing sales survey research effort. The SPA is a non-profit membership organization that works to advance recognition of key software industry issues with the government and business communities. Past SPA initiatives have included extensive anti-piracy efforts, lobbying for pro-software legislation in Washington D.C. (including efforts against tariffs and export controls and in favor of cryptography), and educational efforts like the "Cybersurfari" contests that help students learn about the Internet.
As a trade group, the SPA's members are naturally interested in using the organization's resources to advance their business goals. To that end, the software surveys of SPA members exist (more or less) to convince the world that the software business is booming and is therefore a fertile ground for investment and career choices. Even with such a purpose, though, the SPA is not afraid to publish results that indicate bad times - for example, the last release in December showed an overall decline in software sales for the third calendar quarter of 1996, but the organization did put the best possible spin on their results, pointing out how sales the previous year were artificially high due to the introduction of Windows 95 and associated software.
Companies participating in SPA surveys are asked to submit sales totals in seventeen categories, broken out by operating system. Submissions are due six weeks or so after the end of each quarter. The SPA then tabulates the results and distributes them to participating companies in large, detailed spreadsheets about three weeks later. Three to four weeks after that, the SPA announces the results to the press, although with far less detail than participating companies receive.
Flawed Research -- The system seems reasonable on the face of it, but it has flaws:
Unknown sample size: The SPA says that SPA members are responsible for 85 percent of all North American software sales (and the numbers in this particular survey and article, by the way, are only for U.S. and Canadian sales), but they refuse to disclose how many of those members participate in the voluntary sales surveys. If the responding companies represent significantly less than 85 percent of all software sales, the survey results are correspondingly less important.
Restricted responses: Only SPA members can participate, and since dues start at $750 per year and go into the hundreds of thousands of dollars for the largest companies (depending on software revenues), many smaller developers - the kinds that traditionally do innovative Macintosh work - choose not to join, and are therefore ineligible to have their sales tabulated.
Fast But Inaccurate -- However, the biggest problem is that the results have, for the past several years, been shown by the SPA itself to be highly inaccurate. Some companies don't have the data the SPA wants by the deadline, so they don't turn it in. If they come up with it a month or two later, they'll submit it then, and the SPA will assimilate it into the results. Then, when the SPA needs numbers for the same period, the revised and ostensibly more accurate figures are used.
It makes sense to use the most accurate information available, says the SPA. However, over the past few years, some figures available a year after initial reporting have been vastly different from the originally announced figures. The SPA then commits a sin of synchronization - they compare the fast-but-incomplete results (which I call "preliminary" numbers) to the year-old, far-more-complete figures I call "final" results.
With few exceptions, the final results for Macintosh software sales have been higher - often significantly higher - than preliminary numbers. By comparing the preliminary numbers to the final numbers, the SPA is comparing apples to oranges, and they get percentage changes from one year to the next that can be invalid and highly misleading.
1995: A Good Year -- That's what we see with the results for software sales in 1995. Remember that the SPA releases numbers twice - preliminary figures about three months after the end of the year being discussed, and final numbers one year later as the basis for comparisons against the current year. We now have final 1995 numbers because the SPA is using them as a base to see the differences in the preliminary 1996 numbers.
Several of the SPA's seventeen categories showed little or no difference between the preliminary results and the final results, meaning the original reports were relatively representative - word processors, spreadsheets, databases, integrated software and presentation graphics were all revised by 4 percent or less. However, other categories saw major corrections. Sales of Macintosh utilities are now believed to be twice what the SPA reported a year ago, with similar gains in the Drawing & Painting, personal information management and home education categories. Overall, the SPA now believes that Macintosh software sales were 44.2 percent higher for 1995 than originally reported.
A year ago, when the SPA released preliminary 1995 results, they said Macintosh software sales were down 13.9 percent from 1994's final figures, meaning Macintosh software market share fell to 14 percent from 18 percent in 1994. Now that final 1995 numbers are available, it turns out that Macintosh software sales for the year actually grew 24 percent in 1995.
Unfortunately, Mac OS software still slipped to 15.5 percent market share. That's not because sales fell, but because Windows software sales grew faster - easy to understand during the year Windows 95 was released.
1996: An Iffy Year -- The recent announcement from the SPA compares preliminary 1996 numbers to the new, final 1995 numbers. The comparison shows what you'll read in the major press coverage of these results - a drop of 24 percent in sales for 1996. However, consider the following. What if we assume the under-reporting for 1996 will be similar to the under-reporting that took place in 1995? Perhaps, by comparing the two sets of preliminary numbers (an "apples to apples" comparison), we might find a better estimation of how things are really changing.
Such a comparison shows yearly growth of about 11 percent instead of a decline of 24 percent. This is a lot easier to swallow. Other research I've done showed that Mac OS market share actually rose during the last part of 1996 (see TidBITS-369), and it's hard to believe that computer sales were up while software sales for them were down. Historically, new computer sales have been a large driving force behind new software sales; new software, especially major software, is typically purchased only with new computers or when new versions are released.
Interestingly enough, the SPA's preliminary and final numbers for 1994, a year earlier, were close to each other - within about 3 percent. If we try to average 1994 and 1995 differences to get a sense of how far the SPA's preliminary numbers might be off, we come up with the idea that preliminary numbers are about 21 percent below final numbers. If we go with that idea, we could expect to see 1996 Macintosh software sales drop a bit as a 21 percent margin of error doesn't quite match the 24 percent drop the SPA reports in its preliminary 1996 numbers. However, don't put too much faith in this "average error" approach - the two margins of error for 1994 and 1995 are very different, a good indication that any speculations based on their average may not mean (no pun intended) much.
Past experience with the SPA's numbers and an understanding of the Mac OS market leads me to believe that the final numbers for 1996 will eventually reveal a small increase in sales, but nothing like the large increases for Windows-based software. 1996 was a difficult year for Macintosh software and hardware developers alike, and though customers did eventually return to the platform in small but significant numbers, I think that 20 percent or 30 percent gains would be unrealistic. It's more likely that the platform saw about 8 percent growth or less during the year. The hardware market showed similar moderate growth during 1996, and the "apples to apples" comparison of preliminary numbers is also in that ballpark. We won't know for sure until a year from now, when the SPA releases final numbers for 1996.
Why Does the SPA Do This? I spoke extensively on this matter last fall with SPA public relations director David Phelps, who confirmed my description of the process with research director Jim Sanders. Phelps vehemently insisted that the SPA was not anti-Macintosh and was, in fact, almost an entirely Mac OS shop - it's just that the numbers show declines, and they report them at the time with the best information they have available.
The SPA certainly isn't trying to deceive people about the Macintosh specifically, but the organization does show a marked and lamentable tendency to put the value of its own numbers above the good of the developers they're supposed to serve. The discrepancies mentioned above also affect other SPA categories - Windows (both 16-bit and 32-bit) and DOS - but in those cases, the differences are of magnitude, not of sign. DOS sales in the final figures didn't fall as much, and Windows sales in the preliminary figures didn't rise as much as later information showed. Only the Macintosh sales actually change direction, going from an announced loss to a quiet gain. When the SPA's final figures are 150 percent to 200 percent of the originally reported figures, as is often the case here, the preliminary announcements become significantly misleading.
This then is the SPA's problem. The group is determined to release the numbers on schedule, which invites these inaccurate and misleading reports. Requests that the SPA disclose how many member companies report, disclose the full results that reporting companies receive, and point out when revised figures make the original announcements invalid have all been rejected. There is only one crack in the armor - in this latest press release, touting how all application software sales topped $10 billion for the first time (although a year from now it will probably be significantly higher), the SPA said that the 1996 total was "an 8.3 percent increase from a revised $9.8 billion in 1995" (let me emphasize "revised"). Last year at this time, the SPA said 1995's total was $7.53 billion - an error, again, of nearly 25 percent.
The group appears afraid that if they point out how inaccurate their results are shown to be a year later, the press and public will stop paying attention to their cries that the software industry is healthy. But ironically, these same reports are making the Macintosh software market less healthy. Venture capitalists and other investors who read these results in the popular press will never hear about the corrections, or about the difference between "preliminary" and "final" numbers. The numbers keep going up and the SPA keeps announcing that sales are falling - if they were to point out the paradox in this proposition, they'd have to admit that they don't have accurate data three months after a year ends. They seem completely unwilling make that admission.
There's always hope that this trend will change. After MDJ reported in January (reprinted in TidBITS-363) that Mac OS hardware market share was flat to improving and noting how major research firms didn't bother to track Mac OS market share differently from Apple Computer's market share, some research firms started tracking Mac OS market share and the press was surprised to discover that it was growing. I'm not claiming cause and effect here, but the truth has a way of catching on once it escapes. The truth is that the Mac software market, while suffering through a bad year, has been significantly healthier than the SPA's preliminary numbers have indicated, and there is no reason to believe that situation has changed. Perhaps a different group will come along with scientifically sampled surveys that more accurately represent software sales, so the business community can accurately judge the validity of an investment in Mac OS technology.
[This article is reprinted and updated with permission from MDJ, a daily Macintosh publication covering news, products, and events in the Macintosh world. If you can't get enough insightful Mac news, sign up for a trial subscription to MDJ. TidBITS readers who had a free trial before 01-Apr-97 are invited to accept another one and see how this publication has changed since its beta-test period last year. For more information, visit the MDJ Web site.]
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